Ez egy igazi csúcs, vagy csak virtuális, mert ha reálértéken számítjuk akkor még messze nem értük el a azt a mai dollárban számítva 60-70 dolláros csúcsot, ami a 70-es évek vége felé lehetett.
Itt található az elmélet. Több generációs kutatásokról szól, ami volt Szovjetunióban folyt. Az elmélet nagy orosz nyelvű szakirodalommal rendelkezik.
Még egy kis idézet az előző site-ról:
The key point there (aside from Sassen's malicious characterization of Kenney) is his assertion that no one is discussing abiotic oil at this time. And why is that? Because, you see, we first have to go through the charade of pretending that the world has just about run out of 'conventional' oil reserves, thus justifying massive price hikes, which will further pad the already obscenely high profits of the oil industry. Only then will it be fully acknowledged that there is, you know, that 'other' oil.
"We seem to have plum run out of that fossil fuel that y'all liked so much, but if you want us to, we could probably find you some mighty fine inorganic stuff. You probably won't even notice the difference. The only reason that we didn't mention it before is that - and may God strike me dead if I'm lying - it is a lot more work for us to get to it. So after we charged you up the wazoo for the 'last' of the 'conventional' oil, we're now gonna have to charge you even more for this really 'special' oil. And with any luck at all, none of you will catch on that it's really the same oil."
And that, dear readers, is how I see this little game playing out. Will you be playing along?
Ezt más megvilágításba helyezi az egész topicot. Néhány részlet.
"Something mysterious is going on at Eugene Island 330. Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while. it behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island 330's output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day. Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years ago."
"All of which has led some scientists to a radical theory: Eugene Island is rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some continuous source miles below the Earth's surface. That, they say, raises the tantalizing possibility that oil may not be the limited resource it is assumed to be."
"It would seem then that we can safely conclude that what Kenney, et. al. have presented is valid science, since it definitely was published in a peer-reviewed journal. And what that valid science says, quite clearly, is that petroleum is not by any stretch of the imagination a finite resource, or a 'fossil fuel,' but is in fact a resource that is continuously generated by natural processes deep within the planet.
Geotimes also noted that the research paper "examined thermodynamic arguments that say methane is the only organic hydrocarbon to exist within Earth's crust." Indeed, utilizing the laws of modern thermodynamics, the authors constructed a mathematical model that proves that oil can not form under the conditions dictated by the 'fossil fuel' theory."
"The team, led by J.F. Kenney of the Gas Resources Corporation in Houston, Texas, mimicked conditions more than 100 kilometres below the earth's surface by heating marble, iron oxide and water to around 1500° C and 50,000 times atmospheric pressure.
They produced traces of methane, the main constituent of natural gas, and octane, the hydrocarbon molecule that makes petrol. A mathematical model of the process suggests that, apart from methane, none of the ingredients of petroleum could form at depths less than 100 kilometres."
"The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not new or recent. This theory was first enunciated by Professor Nikolai Kudryavtsev in 1951, almost a half century ago, (Kudryavtsev 1951) and has undergone extensive development, refinement, and application since its introduction. There have been more than four thousand articles published in the Soviet scientific journals, and many books, dealing with the modern theory. This writer is presently co-authoring a book upon the subject of the development and applications of the modern theory of petroleum for which the bibliography requires more than thirty pages."
Elég nagy gondok vannak a tartalékok becslése körül. A nem-konvencionális tartalékokat egyszerűen elhanyagolták. Pedig a nyersolaj árának növekedésével gazdaságossá válhat a kitermelésük.
"To these estimated quantities of conventional oil must also be added the potential for oil resources from unconventional habitats. These are geographically extensive and include the tar sands of the Province of Alberta in Canada, the heavy oil belt of the Orinoco region of Venezuela and the oil shales of the United States, Brazil, India and Malagasy etc. High production costs and low oil prices have hitherto inhibited the inclusion of unconventional oil resources in the world oil resource figures. Now, developing production technologies, coupled with the very much higher market value of oil, convert large quantites of unconventional oil into an effective resource. The volume of this addition to the ultimate oil resource base is a minium of two trillion (2 x 10 to the 9th) barrels (see WEC-CCR) and a maximum of unknown dimensions, given that, to date, there has been no formal search for unconventional oil and no systematic evaluation of its occurrence on a world wide basis."
The number of engineering graduate degrees awarded by U.S. universities has been steadily declining in the last two decades, from about 85,000 in 1985 to 65,000 in 2000, he said.
Nemcsak a kutatk száma csökken az usa-ban,hanem a mérnökök száma is.A 85-ös 85000-röl 2000-re 65000-re csökkent a végzettek száma.
Megjegyzem,hogy a világ többi részén is ez a tendencia.
A gond az,hogy az olaj fogyása növelni fogja a mérnökök iránti keresletet,és nem lesz elég ember aki üzemeltetné az olaj kiváltására szánt energiaforásokat,illetve távvezetékeket építeni,cellás autókat tervezne és gyártana.
Egyébként filóztam némit ezeken az infókon,amik öszejöttek itt alant.
Ez alapján jelenleg még nem az olajcsúcsot éljük,szvsz lesz még legalább egy periódus(pár éven belül) amikor a most beindult beruházások indukálta termelésnövekedés,illetve a fogyasztás csökkenése csökkenő árakat eredményez,ha az usa földgáztermelése nem zuhan számottevően.
Ugyannis az usa naponta nagyjábol 10-12 millió hordónak megfelelő mennyiségű földgázt használ.
Tehát ha valóban 5%-ék körüli mértékben csökken a földgázkitermelés,akkor évi fél millió hordó olajra van szüksége kb a kieső mennyisgé pótlására.
Az usa földgázfogyasztásának 25%-a megy el elektromoság termelésére,tehát nagyajábol ez az a rész ami szenes erőművekkel egyszerűen kiváltható.
De ez is nagyjábol optimálisan 1 évtizedet igényel....
Vagyis ha belelendülnek az új szeneserőművek építésébe,akkor kiválthatják a földgázt,viszont a növekedés minden energiaigénye ebben az esetben az olajra hárul.
(ezek a jelenlegi piaci viszonyok és költsgéek alapján vannak sacolva).
Tehát az igazi érdekeség az lesz,hogy a földgázkitermelés csökkenésével párhzamosan az usa egyre jobban fogja fogyasztani az olajat,ami viszont az olajigényt erőteljesen meg fogja nyomni előre nem látható mértékben.Ez viszont hozza előre az olajcsúcsot,attol fügően hogy milyen mértékben növekszik az usa gazdasága,illetve hogy milyen gyorsan tudják átálítani az áramtermelést szenesre.
Persze kérdéses még a kitermeléscsökkenés valós volta , mivel ez csak a gázárakbol van következtetve,illetve egy-két cikböl.
Az ASPO weboldalán fent van az új newsletter.Érdekes infók a legnagyobb szaudi olajmező állapotárol.Röviden:rövidesen a többmillió hordó/nap teljesítményű kútbol jó hozamú vízkút lesz....
Ez egy igazi csúcs, vagy csak virtuális, mert ha reálértéken számítjuk akkor még messze nem értük el a
azt a mai dollárban számítva 60-70 dolláros csúcsot, ami a 70-es évek vége felé lehetett.
No régi atomerőmüvei rendkivül primitivek, az üzemanyag nem sugárzik el au erőmüben, igy nagyon szennyez. Tehát nmeg kell szüntetni ezeket, mert nem növelhető zovább a sugárszennyezés.
Ellentétben az uj modern atomerőmüvek egy nagyságrenddel kevésbé sugár-szennyeznek, mint a régiek.
Kedves procurator! Ez itt a legfontosabb témakör, szvsz ezen a Fórumon. És ugyan jómagam beszélem a használt külföldi nyelvet, de a látogatottság és az átlagsejtések miatt szerencsés, ha a többi olvtárs eljárása szerint pár mondatban összefoglalod mondandódat.
Kezd keményedni a levegő, és jó, ha mindenkinek legalább sejtése van, mit is hoz.
A szén se örökéletű, nemsokára netto energianyelővé válik, a kitermelésbe befeketett energia egyenlővé válik az elégetéséből kinyerhető mennyiséggel (~2030).
Atomerőműveket viszont építeni kellene és nem leállítani. Pl. ott van Németo. Be akarják zárni az összeset.
Az első fúziós erőmű helyéről se tudtak idén megegyezni, ha ez sikerül évtizedekig tarthat az építkezés.
Alapvetően törvények szabályoznák az új rendszert, szóval nem látok társadalmi problémát a működtetésnél, csak a bevezésnél. Még a vagyonosabb rétegek is kedvezne. Egyedüli változás náluk az lenne, hogy már nem kamatozna a pénzük a bankban, ezért azt dolgoztatni kell.
Vannak történelmi példák hasonló rendszerek működésére.
Most találtam egy másik írást, ami egy másik megoldást vázol fel. Ez utópisztikusabb, mivel elég nagy ellenállásba ütközne a javak egyenlő elosztása.
"Does Dr. Hubbert have a recommendation for the overhaul of our culture and an alternative to money? When I spoke to him by telephone in about 1970 he confirmed that he did. His suggestion was that income in units of energy could be used. In a 30 page research paper which he published while at Columbia in August 1936 titled "MAN-HOURS--A DECLINING QUANTITY"[4] he wrote, "the American public has watched both government and business indulge in the curtailment of food production and its wholesale destruction at a time of the greatest human need in American history. They have seen their factories closed at a time when a large fraction of the population has been in want of the products of industry and when millions have been willing and anxious to work.-- What is there so difficult about the problem? What is it that has to be done in order to solve it? Simply and solely that our Continental totality shall be operated at a maximum of efficiency with a maximum conservation of resources for the maximum production and distribution of physical wealth--with a resultant standard of living greater than has ever been obtained on the North American Continent. To do this requires a distributive mechanism that will deliver the products of industry to the consuming public at whatever rate is required.
Getting something for nothing
In the distribution to the public of the products of industry, the failure of the present system is the direct result of the faulty premise upon which it is based. This is: that somehow a man is able by his personal services to render to society the equivalent of what he receives, from which it follows that the distribution to each shall be in accordance with the services rendered and that those who do not work must not eat. This is what our propagandists call 'the impossibility of getting something for nothing.' Aside from the fact that only by means of the sophistries of lawyers and economists can it be explained how, on this basis, those who do nothing at all frequently receive the largest shares of the national income, the simple fact is that it is impossible for any man to contribute to the social system the physical equivalent of what it costs the system to maintain him form birth till death--and the higher the physical standard of living the greater is this discrepancy. This is because man is an engine operating under the limitations of the same physical laws as any other engine. The energy that it takes to operate him is several times as much as any amount of work he can possibly perform. If, in addition to his food, he receives also the products of modern industry, this is due to the fact that material and energy resources happen to be available and, as compared with any contribution he can make, constitute a free gift from heaven. Stated more specifically, it costs the social system on the North American Continent the energy equivalent to nearly 10 tons of coal per year to maintain one man at the average present standard of living, and no contribution he can possibly make in terms of the energy conversion of his individual effort will ever repay the social system the cost of his social maintenance. Is it not to be wondered at, therefore, that a distributive mechanism based upon so rank a fallacy should fail to distribute; the marvel is that it has worked as well as it has. Since any human being, regardless of his personal contribution, is a social dependent with respect to the energy resources upon which society operates, and since every operation within a given society is effected at the cost of a degradation of an available supply of energy, this energy degradation, measured in appropriate physical units such as kilowatt-hours, constitutes the common physical cost of all social operations. Since also the energy-cost of maintaining a human being exceeds by a large amount his ability to repay, we can abandon the fiction that what one is to receive is in payment for what one has done, and recognize that what we are really doing is utilizing the bounty that nature has provided us. Under these circumstances we recognize that we all are getting something for nothing, and the simplest way of effecting distribution is on a basis of equality, especially so when it is considered that production can be set equal to the limit of our capacity to consume, commensurate with adequate conservation of our physical resources.
Income in Units of Energy
On this basis our distribution then becomes foolproof and incredibly simple. We keep our records of the physical costs of production in terms of the amount of extraneous energy degraded. We set industrial production arbitrarily at a rate equal to the saturation of the physical capacity of our public to consume. We distribute purchasing power in the form of energy certificates to the public, the amount issued to each being equivalent to his pro rata share of the energy-cost of the consumer goods and services to be produced during the balanced-load period for which the certificates are issued. These certificates bear the identification of the person to whom issued and are non negotiable. They resemble a bank check in that they bear no face denomination, this being entered at the time of spending. They are surrendered upon the purchase of goods or services at any center of distribution and are permanently canceled, becoming entries in a uniform accounting system. Being nonnegotiable they cannot be lost, stolen, gambled, or given away because they are invalid in the hands of any person other than the one to whom issued. If lost, like a bank checkbook, new ones may be had for the asking. Neither can they be saved because they become void at the termination of the two-year period for which they are issued. They can only be spent. Contrary to the Price System rules, the purchasing power of an individual is no longer based upon the fallacious premise that a man is being paid in proportion to the so-called 'value' of his work (since it is a physical fact that what he receives is greatly in excess of his individual effort) but upon the equal pro rata division of the net energy degraded in the production of consumer goods and services. In this manner the income of an individual is in nowise dependent upon the nature of his work, and we are then left free to reduce the working hours of our population to as low a level as technological advancement will allow, without in any manner jeopardizing the national or individual income, and without the slightest unemployment problem or poverty. "
Hubbert goes on to state that following a transition the work required of each individual, need be no longer than about 4 hours per day, 164 days per year, from the ages of 25 to 45. Income will continue until death. "Insecurity of old age is abolished and both saving and insurance become unnecessary and impossible."
My personal conclusions and recommendations are:
1. We will never again be able to get sufficient growth of the economy to eliminate or even markedly reduced unemployment. NAFTA, GATT, and Clinton's hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment is doomed to failure.
2. The promise of competing in the global economy is a hoax perpetrated upon the working and unemployed people of this country because over time a nation needs to buy and sell overseas in roughly equivalent amounts.
3. All attempts to reduce the deficit, balance the budget or pay off the national debt are futile. The deficit and the national debt represent the subsidy the government has paid in its attempt to keep growth and unemployment at the level of social tolerance.
4. The steady state economy into which we are being inexorably forced implies an interest rate of zero.
5. An interest rate of zero (as Hubbert explains) means the end of the money system. We are being forced to completely rethink our cultural ideas about how to organize our economy and distribute purchasing power.
6. Increasingly desperate means will be used by those who think we can continue to have business as usual.
7. The proposals of Negative Population Growth should be implemented immediately. "
HOUSTON, May 17 -- Predicting another oil shock, analysts John Westwood Ltd., Canterbury, England, said depleting oil reserves, coupled with growing energy demand, will result in sustained oil price increases, greater capital investment in natural gas production, drastic conservation regulations, and fevered development of renewable energy substitutes funded by "windfall" profits.
The current $40 oil prices likely will begin sustained rises soon, requiring the massive development of natural gas and renewable energy resources, said the firm's John Westwood.
China's rising oil demand, in particular, likely will continue, he said. China has 5 times the US population and is industrializing rapidly, Westwood said. Vehicle growth in China also is expanding apace, increasing global oil demand (see CERA: Impact of China's energy situation, OGJ Online, May 17, 2004).
"Any growth in global economic activity increases oil demand such that, at 1% demand growth a production peak [will occur] in 2016; at 2% it occurs in 2012; and at 3% it occurs in 2008. The world's known and estimated yet-to-find reserves and resources cannot satisfy even the present level of production of some 76 million b/d beyond 2020," Westwood warned.
Oil wanes; prices rise
Supply specialist Michael R. Smith added that, of 99 producing countries 52 are already past their production peak and 16 are at peak. Once a country passes peak production, he said, there is little chance it can reverse its decline. "When this happens to total global oil supply, then growth in demand will be impossible," Smith said.
"Large capital investments within OPEC countries are already required to rapidly increase production after 2008 by at least an additional 1-2 million b/d every year to offset declines elsewhere," he warned. If such output is not achieved as fast as required, the world will then see sustained growth in oil prices, Smith said.
Once oil supplies approach peak and scarcity prevails, prices will double within 3-4 years, just as they did during the oil shocks of the 1970s until oil demand falls significantly, Smith said.
"Drastic conservation will make prices fluctuate as they did in the oil shocks, always settling at a higher level," Smith said. A new stable energy mix might ultimately be achieved with substitute fuels, but it is uncertain how long that would take. "Meanwhile producers will face steadily increasing government, environmental, and conservation regulations," Smith said.
"Windfall profits arising from energy price surges, which traditionally have funded new oil and gas investment, will have to be, at least partly, employed in bringing other forms of energy to profitability."
Gas, renewables boom
"Global production of natural gas, currently some 2,600 billion cu m, is expected to grow to 4,755 billion cu m/year by 2025," an average increase of 2.75%/year at a cost of $25-40 billion/year, he said. Smith forecast that more than $39 billion will be spent during the next 5 years on LNG facilities.
"The future driver for renewable energy will not be global warming, but security of supply," said Westwood, who forecasts major investment increases in all renewable energy sources, particularly windpower and biomass, to offset soaring conventional energy prices.
Natehát,az ürge 2008-2016-ra teszi az olajcsúcsot.
Kitörési pontként a földgáztermelés felfutatását és az alt. energiák nyomását hozta fel,csak éppen ezek még a jelenlegi árak duplája melett sem gazdaságosak.
Szvsz ebben alapvető tévedésben van.A növekvő árak a szén és az atom korszakát fogják elhozni.
Egyébként ez is mutatja az usa cikis helyzetét,hiszen ők nagyon nehezen tudják növelni a földgázexporjukat.
It looked like a hand grenade, so the Albany, N.Y., station operator played it safe and assumed that it was a hand grenade. He gave the man who was toting it all the gas he wanted. Attendants elsewhere last week faced curses and threats of violence, sometimes backed by suspicious bulges in the pockets of jackets. When a huge bear of a man warned a Springfield, Mass., dealer, "You are going to give me gas or I will kill you," the dealer squeezed his parched pumps to find some. "Better a live coward than a dead hero," he said.
Such incidents were not exactly common last week, but they occurred often enough, especially in the Northeast, to indicate an outbreak of a kind of gasoline madness. The New Year's weekend was the first time that many drivers became really desperate for gas. Many stations ran out of their monthly allotments as the weekend started and closed until they could get new deliveries after the holiday. Those that stayed open backed up long lines of drivers whose tempers sometimes exploded -- especially if they found the pumps dry when they finally got to them.
The gas shortage is sparking other types of deviant behavior. Flouting of the law is on the rise. In New York City, two gasoline tanks trucks, each loaded with 3,000 gallons, were hijacked within a week. Price gouging by station owners has become distressingly common. Miamians complain of having to pay $1 a gallon or being charged a $2 "service fee" before a station attendant will wait on them.
At best, many gas station owners and attendants have become unapproachable to strangers; they will wait only on longtime customers. Some issue window stickers to the regulars; others sell by appointment only. Oregon Governor Tom McCall last week rolled into a Union 76 station only to be told by the manager: "Sorry, Governor, we're only selling to our regular customers."
So the Governor meekly drove to the end of the line at a nearby station that was taking all comers…
A megoldás a kamatmentes pénz bevezetése lenne, megfelelő szabályozás melett, hogy a pénz cirkulációja ne álljon le. Mindehhez jönne egy földrefrom. Ezt nehéz összefoglalni pár sorban miért kell ezt tenni, erről sok anyag van fenn a neten.
Már a mai pénzünk mögött sincs fedezet, szoval a fedezet nem számít. Kb. úgy möködik a dolog, ha van 100 HUF készpénzed és beteszed a bankba, abból a bank kölcsönadhat 500 HUF-t.
Ez továbbra is szabad piac, nem központi gazdálkodás. Csak a pénz funkcióját állították helyre.
Az egyetlen hátulütője a dolognak, hogy hogyan fogják meg a hirtelen megugró gazdasági növekedést. Erre is vannak tervek.
Nem vagyok közgazdász,csak egy józan ember.Amit az ürge mond,valóság,de a megoldás nagyobb bajt okoz,mint a betegésg.
A fedezet nélküli pénzkibocsájtásra,a központilag történő gazdaságtervezésre és a forrásoka ingyeneségére volt már példa,és mi magunk is megtapaszaltuk bukását....
Ahogy számításom mutatta,a kőolajfogyása elintézi a (közel)0 kamatot:egyszerűen a gazdasági növekedés közel nullára csökken,ami a kamatokat a padlóra viszi.Ja,persze azután hogy a most ismert gazdaság megszünik...
Igazi kitörési pont csak a világűr gyarmatosítása lehet.Ott nincs elvi és gyakorlati határa a gazdasági terjeszkedésnek.
USA gazdasága már akkor roppanna, ha 0 közelébe kerülne tartósan a gazdaság növekedés, állandó olajárak mellett. A USA pénzállomány kb.95%-a kereskedelemi bankok által teremtett hitelpénz. Ennek a kamatait kell visszafizetni, ami csak új kölcsönökkel megy. Az új kölcsönök jelentik a gazdasági növekedést. De ahogy látom itt néhányan beszélnek angolul. A hozzászólásaimban van néhány cikk, érdemes elolvasni és összerakni a képet!
Benchmark U.S. light crude futures for June delivery climbed to $41.17 a barrel in after hours trade — the highest level since October 1990 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. It settled the regular session up 31 cents to $41.08, while London Brent gained 54 cents at $38.49 a barrel.
1. As regards new discoveries, they point out that the last great oil field, the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia with reserves of 87 billion barrels, was discovered 45 years ago. Since then geologists have scoured the earth searching for major new fields -- to no avail. The largest remaining unexplored area is the South China Sea, which is considered by geologists to be promising but not spectacular.
But as Goldstein points out: "Let us suppose for one euphoric moment that one more really big one is still out there to be discovered. Even if we were to stumble onto another 90-billion barrels field tomorrow (the equivalent of another Ghawar field) Hubbert's Peak would be delayed by a year or two, well within the uncertainty of the present estimates of when it will occur. It would hardly make any difference at all."
2. Regarding timing, the bell shape of the history of crude oil output dictates that the supply crisis will begin in earnest not when the last drop of oil has been pumped out of the ground sometime in the hazy future, but rather when we have used up half the oil that existed, not all of it. Once we have reached that halfway point, existing oil fields will start to become exhausted faster than the new oil fields can be tapped. The rate at which oil can be pumped out of the ground will then start to decline.
This, as Goldstein points out. is the essence of the bell-shaped curve hypothesis. There is a growing consensus that the crucial turning point in output will probably occur in the second half of this decade, in or around 2007.
The crucial remaining question is: how fast will the gap then grow between supply and demand? All other things being equal, the decline side of the curve will be a mirror image of the initial increase. But of course there will be mitigating factors, such as energy conservation measures or the development of substitutes to oil as a primary energy source, ranging from hydrogen to nuclear to solar.
But the odds seem overwhelming that none of this will happen in time to head off an energy crisis that will dwarf anything we have ever experienced.
Nos,próbáltam az árakat nézni,de a szén esetében annyira szórodik a mínőség és a szállíáts költsége,hogy csoda.
mindenesetre fűtőszenet(aminek túl nagy a szennyezőanyag tartalma a vasgyártáshoz) 30$-ért lehet tonnánként indonéziában,kikötői árral számolva vásárolni,ami nagyjábol 10$ emelkedést jelent a tavalyihoz képest.
Az EIA szerint az usa-ban ezek az árak tavaly 50$ körül voltak.
Bár az igaz,hogy az usa is tervezi környezetvédelmi intézkedések meghozatalát a szénerőművekkel szemben.
Ráadásul a környezetvédelem drágítja a termelést....
És ha a legdurvább tervezetek megvalósulnak,akkor akár a szélkerés is olcsobb lehet mint a szénerőmű.
Érdekes:A teljes populációs középpon,a fehér lakosság középpontja és a gyerekek popluációs középpontja.
A teljes populációs középpont vándorlásának felgyorsulása az utóbbi 50 évben azt mutatja,hogy egyrészt a keleti part is kezdett benépesülni (repülők,autók),másrészt a délre tolódása a légkondíciónálók elterjedését mutatja,ami lehetővé teszi a jó életet délen is.(és ami a gázrízis egyík oka....)
