41$ fölött a Júniusi olaj hordója.

Oil prices jump above $41 a barrel

Benchmark U.S. light crude futures for June delivery climbed to $41.17 a barrel in after hours trade — the highest level since October 1990 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. It settled the regular session up 31 cents to $41.08, while London Brent gained 54 cents at $38.49 a barrel.

itt pedig megtudhatjuk, hogy ez így is marad:

Hubbert's Peak goes global
Commentary: Why the coming oil crisis will be structural

1. As regards new discoveries, they point out that the last great oil field, the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia with reserves of 87 billion barrels, was discovered 45 years ago. Since then geologists have scoured the earth searching for major new fields -- to no avail. The largest remaining unexplored area is the South China Sea, which is considered by geologists to be promising but not spectacular.

But as Goldstein points out: "Let us suppose for one euphoric moment that one more really big one is still out there to be discovered. Even if we were to stumble onto another 90-billion barrels field tomorrow (the equivalent of another Ghawar field) Hubbert's Peak would be delayed by a year or two, well within the uncertainty of the present estimates of when it will occur. It would hardly make any difference at all."

2. Regarding timing, the bell shape of the history of crude oil output dictates that the supply crisis will begin in earnest not when the last drop of oil has been pumped out of the ground sometime in the hazy future, but rather when we have used up half the oil that existed, not all of it. Once we have reached that halfway point, existing oil fields will start to become exhausted faster than the new oil fields can be tapped. The rate at which oil can be pumped out of the ground will then start to decline.

This, as Goldstein points out. is the essence of the bell-shaped curve hypothesis. There is a growing consensus that the crucial turning point in output will probably occur in the second half of this decade, in or around 2007.

The crucial remaining question is: how fast will the gap then grow between supply and demand? All other things being equal, the decline side of the curve will be a mirror image of the initial increase. But of course there will be mitigating factors, such as energy conservation measures or the development of substitutes to oil as a primary energy source, ranging from hydrogen to nuclear to solar.

But the odds seem overwhelming that none of this will happen in time to head off an energy crisis that will dwarf anything we have ever experienced.